After finalisation of the Remote Sensing Based Forest Inventory of Ukraine (RS-Inventory), the SFI-Project is now working on a concept for the implementation of a Timber Supply Outlook Study on Ukraine based on this data. A ready-to-use and freely available matrix model, such as the European Forestry Dynamics Model (EFDM), seems a good option. This model has been successfully tested in many European countries, coordinated by the European National Forest Inventory Network (ENFIN).

In light of this background the SFI-Project invited 09.04.2024 interested specialist to participate in an information exchange about capacities and needs in timber supply modelling in Ukraine, to share the experiences with the used of European Forestry Dynamics Model (EFDM) in Finland and to draw conclusions for a possible implementation of this model in Ukraine.

In the beginning Liubov Poliakova, SFI-Project expert, spoke about possibilities and necessity to conduct a Timber Supply Outlook study in Ukraine. She explained methodological requirements of the study and focussed on relevant policy scenarios that could have impact on timber supply in medium and long term in Ukraine as well as possible parameters of the outlook.

Afterwards Minna Räty from Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE) presented experiences in Finland with the European Forestry Dynamics Model, where she touched aspects of data requirements, potentials and limitations of this model, which is able to operationalise the impacts of forestry regulations on forest resources and timber supply. Räty pointed to various advantages, such as simplicity in handling, sufficient accuracy, applicability for uneven aged forests and easy accessibility of the model software, but talked also about challenges, such as significant input data requirements to run the model. The model outputs are publicly recognised in Finland and partly used for forest policy decision making. The model will also be used in a newly started EU project (MoniFun) with partners from several European countries. Options for supporting the implementation of EFDM in Ukraine by LUKE were discussed.

Heino Polley, SFI-Project expert, focussed on options and the required work packages for a Timber Supply Outlook Study on Ukraine. He summarised that EFDM is an efficient tool to run a timber supply modelling in Ukraine. In order to improve the data basis, an additional retrospective RS inventory would be very useful. He also mentioned a similar to EFDM, but more simple EXCEL application developed by Thünen Institute in Germany. This can be used for a business-as-usual scenario and shows very transparent the working principle of a matrix model, such as EFDM.

Vitalіy Storozhuk, SFI-National Project Coordinator, proposed as a next step that the SFI-Project should allocate resources with the aim to verify how the recent RS-Inventory outputs in Ukraine would fit as EFDM input data.

Ihor Buksha, Head of Inventory, Monitoring, Certification and Forest Management Planning Department of URIFFM, recalled earlier experiences in timber supply modelling in Ukraine which was done in beginning of 2000s in frame of international collaboration project SCEFORMA and expressed interest of the Ukrainian Research Institute of Forestry and Forest Melioration in Kharkiv (URIFFM) to be involved to international collaboration on modelling of timber supply for Ukraine, considering the existing experience of URIFFM experts in this direction.

In his conclusion, Volker Sasse, SFI-Project Leader, said “The objectives of the SFI-Project is not only to implement a robust one-off Timber Supply Outlook Study, but to develop an understanding among policy makers how to use this powerful tool in policy justification. Timber supply outlook modelling in Ukraine requires consultancy resources for training and capacity building. Further closer cooperation with Finnish experts seems advisable in this context.”

Presentation Preparation a concept for the implementation of a Timber Supply Outlook Study for Ukraine

Presentation European Forestry Dynamics Model (EFDM)

Video of Zoom conference